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Monsoon shortfall at 7%, more rainfall likely soon

While parts of Madhya Pradesh got heavy downpour on Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted monsoon rains over most parts of the country during the next couple of days. -

July 22, 2015 While parts of Madhya Pradesh got heavy downpour on Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted monsoon rains over most parts of the country during the next couple of days.

�Heavy rainfall would occur at places in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan, east Rajasthan, west and east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, interior and coastal Karnataka and Kerala in the next few days,� IMD stated in its latest weather bulletin.

According to private weather forecaster Skymet, the intensity of rain would start decreasing from Tuesday onwards as the low-pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh has now weakened into a cyclonic circulation.

�In another 48 hours or so, this monsoon system brewing in the north Bay of Bengal is most likely to develop into a low-pressure area or a cyclonic circulation. After gaining strength, this monsoon system is expected to give good rains over highly rain- deficient regions of Maharashtra including Marathwada, Vidharba and Madhya Maharashtra. It will further travel to Gujarat and give rain over the state and its adjoining areas,� Skymet stated in a statement.

According to IMD, the quantum of average monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1- July 21 has been 331.2 millimetres which is 7% less than the benchmark of 357.6 millimetres arrived on the basis of a 50-year average shower.

On the regional distribution, the north-west region has received 8% excess rainfall than normal benchmark while the central India region has received 14% less rainfall than normal.

While south peninsula has 12% less rainfall than normal so far, eastern and northern eastern regions have received 6% less rainfall than normal. The worst hit are Gujarat region (-58%), Saurashtra and Kutch (-38%), Madhya Maharashtra (-33%) and Marathwada (-49%) which have received less rainfall than normal.

Meanwhile, ministry of agriculture which released kharif sowing data last week, had reported more than 62% higher acreage than last year. As against 346.34 lakh hectares sown in 2014-15, this year so far 563.35 lakh hectares have been cultivated with a significant increase in the sowing of pulses, coarse cereals, oil seeds and cotton.

Last month the IMD had revised downward its forecast of seasonal rainfall (June-September) for this year to 88% of a long-period average (LPA), from 93% reported in May. However Skymet, has predicted a normal monsoon, with showers at 102% of the LPA.

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